The 2024 season of FBS college football introduced two big changes affecting the post-season: (1) a 12-team playoff and (2) super-conferences without divisions. Combined with the increasing parity in the sport, it makes for a lot of uncertainty with one week left in the regular season. This blog breaks down the current landscape and contenders for the playoff.
Background on College Football Playoff format
The problem with a 12-team playoff is you have to put 12 teams in there.
—Confucius
In the previous iterations of the College Football Playoff with a 4-team field, the only thing which mattered was the Selection Committee’s final ranking of who were the “best” teams. The definition of “best” varied week-to-week and year-to-year, and conference championships were paid lip service but could be ignored. Examples include 2016 Big Ten champ Penn State (2 losses) being passed over for 1-loss Ohio State.
The 12-team playoff is different, in that there are 5 auto-bids for conference champions. With 10 FBS conferences, this practically means that the champions of four “autonomy status” conferences—Big Ten, SEC, ACC, and Big 12—are guaranteed, while the highest rated champion among the six “Group of Five” conferences gets in.
The remaining 7 at-large spots go to teams in order according to the final CFP Selection Committee ranking. Note that because byes go to conference champions, seeding for the actual tournament doesn’t follow rankings. For example, if the Committee ranks Ohio State and Oregon #1 and #2, one of those teams will get a #1 see with a first-round bye, while the other will be the #5 seed. If Notre Dame ever finished #1 in the rankings, it would still get a #5 seed because it would not be a conference champ. And, the #12-ranked team is not guaranteed a spot in the bracket if it’s not a conference champ, because a #13 ranked conference champ, if among the 5-highest rated champions, would take the last spot.
Current conference races
After reaching 16 or 18 teams, the autonomy/power conferences all decided that they would (1) still use a championship game to determine the winner of the league, (2) remove divisions, and (3) pick the two best teams to play in the championship game. It’s this 3rd step which is complicated, because two or more teams can have the same records. So there exist a series of complicated tiebreak procedures for each conference, some of which end in what everyone would be rooting for: flipping a coin.
Right now, here are the conference championship game scenarios of the conferences likely to be the 5 highest ranked (sorry MAC, Sun Belt, C-USA):
Big Ten
Oregon [11-0 (8-0 B1G)] has clinched, even if they lose to Washington.
Ohio State [10-1 (7-1 B1G)] is in with a win over Michigan. If Ohio State loses to Michigan, either Indiana [10-1 (7-1 B1G)] or Penn State [10-1 (7-1 B1G)] would take the second spot depending on the result of their games (hosting Purdue and Maryland, respectively).
SEC
Georgia [9-2 (6-2 SEC)] has clinched. Georgia’s Week 14 matchup is hosting ACC rival Georgia Tech.
The winner of Texas [10-1 (6-1 SEC)] @ Texas A&M [8-3 (5-2 SEC)] will meet Georgia in Atlanta for the title.
ACC
SMU [10-1 (7-0 ACC)] has clinched, even if they lose to fellow ACC member California in Week 14.
If Miami [10-1 (6-1 ACC)] beats Syracuse, then Miami will play SMU. If they lose, SMU will meet Clemson [9-2 (7-1 ACC)], who play South Carolina.
Big 12
This summer, Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormack promised parity. He delivered, because this league is an absolute shitshow. No one has clinched an appearance in the championship game. Per the Big 12, “nine teams are still in contention for the Dr Pepper Big 12 Football Championship.” I am not going to go through the 250 scenarios that affect the standings. Instead, just know tat the hot teams are Arizona State [9-2 (6-12 Big 12)], BYU [9-2 (6-2 Big 12)], and Iowa State [9-2 (6-2 Big 12]
Mountain West
Boise State [10-1 (7-0 MW] has clinched. They play Pac-12 survivor Oregon State in Week 14.
If UNLV [9-2 (5-1 MW)] beats Nevada, they will likely be in because of tiebreakers with Colorado State [7-4 (5-1 MW)]. If not and CSU beats Utah State, they’ll be in.
American Athletic Conference
Army will play Tulane
Potential At-Larges
The only team not in the race for its conference title that I would pencil in for an at-large bid is Tennessee [9-2 (5-2 SEC)], assuming that they beat in-state foe Vanderbilt in Week 14. If Tennessee loses, they should be out and the committee will be scraping for another at-large bid, potentially Clemson.
Here’s the breakdown of what I think will happen if all the favorites win out in key games, which is likely not going to happen:
4 spots to the Big Ten: Oregon, Ohio State, Indiana, Penn State.
1 spot to the Mountain West: It will be Boise State if they win out. If they choke, it will be either UNLV in the MW or Army/Tulane out of the American.
1 spot to Notre Dame [10-1], assuming they beat USC. If they don’t, add another at-large (Clemson)
1 spot to the Big 12. Any Big 12 non-champ will have at least 3 losses and not be ranked in the Top 12.
2 spots to the ACC. SMU and Miami, with Clemson lurking for chokes elsewhere.
3 spots to the SEC. Champion (either UGA/UTx/TAMU), the champ game loser (largely same), and Tennessee. There does exist a nightmare scenario for Aggies fans if they manage to beat Texas but lose to Georgia, and the committee keeps them out for having 4 losses but chooses Texas. I don’t think that would happen because of head-to-head results, but boy that would be funny.
There is no room for Ole Miss (good win over Georgia, but 3 losses), Alabama (good win over Georgia, but 3 losses) unless other chokes happen. The reason Tennessee gets in over Alabama is head-to-head; Ole Miss is out because more losses and a worse lose in Kentucky.