Below is an update as of the end of Wednesday, November 9. I had meant to make this shorter, but it really got out of hand. TBD if I do this again in this level of detail.
Senate Races:
Overall: We are now just waiting on Nevada and Arizona. Georgia is officially a runoff, with Warnock taking the lead in votes. The Senate is currently at 48 D / 49 R.
Nevada: The Clark County elections office held a press conference today where they said they would continue to provide updates towards the end of each day with vote totals, usually around 9pm EST. The first dump tonight was about 65% for Cortez-Masto, 35% for Laxalt, and cut into his lead by about 6k votes. The current breakdown is Laxalt ahead by about 17,500 votes. Clark county (Las Vegas) and Washoe county (traditional swing county) both have a ton of votes which were placed in drop boxes on election day, and if those margins we saw today hold for Cortez-Masto, she will likely win. Nevada said they might be counting until the end of next week.
Arizona: This race seems to be Mark Kelly’s to lose. With ~95k votes leading, the main set of votes we are waiting for are mail in ballots, with the largest in Maricopa (Phoenix). Of those votes, 275,000 were dropped off on election day, and 125k were sent in earlier. The set of 125k will likely favor democrats, and the set of 275k could go either way. In 2020 those “late early votes” favored R’s, but not by enough for Trump or McSally (remember her?) to take the lead. There is some speculation this year that set may not favor R’s, and all of that notwithstanding, Kelly is ahead currently of where Biden was 2 years ago. Again, it is his race to lose at this point. This one will take all week unless that set of 275k breaks for D’s.
My Take: D’s take these two senate races and the GA runoff. Things seem to be trending well for them, and I don’t see folks who didn’t pick Walker the first time showing up when the governor isn’t on the ballot. Especially when GA Dems seem to have a good turnout machine of late. Maybe I just jinxed it.
House Races:
Overall: A bunch of decisions desks have called various races, and some are still pretty conservative on this. I’ll do the best I can. ABC currently has the house at 197 D and 211 R confirmed. Republicans need to just win 7 more seats, which is more likely than not. What will be interesting is what that margin will be, and that is going to come down to California, which could take weeks to come into focus. R’s have made huge gains in FL and NY, but those have been offset by some D turnovers in Illinois, Ohio, North Carolina and Michigan. Pennsylvania also didn’t have much upside for D’s, but R’s gained zero seats, so it’s a best case scenario for Dems. The markets have been steady with R’s at 89% to take the House, and overall I see nothing crazy yet to move the needle to an actual Dem hold on control. Think of it like this – if you can pick 7 races below R’s win, that’s the majority. Pretty easy to see how they could get that a few different ways.
Maine: ME-2 has Golden (D) ahead by three points, but at 48% with 95% of the vote in, this will go to an instant runoff under Maine’s ranked choice vote system. Tiffany Bond (I) has 7% of the vote, so her voters will ultimately decide the race. I looked her up and have no clue what her politics are, or who here voters will favor. Your guess is as good as mine.
New York: R’s made their biggest gains in NY, where an aggressive D gerrymander was shot down by the New York Court of Appeals and a special master instituted a relatively R-friendly map (but still within the bounds of a fair map TBH). R’s have picked up 4-5 races here. The last hold outs are NY-22 and NY-18. A lot of places are calling NY-22 for the R and NY-18 for D, which is likely how this will end up in my view. Call it R’s netting 5 seats here, on top of their 4 in FL. That alone gets them the majority without Dems flipping seats back.
Maryland: We are waiting on a big race in MD-6, which has 73% of the vote in, and Parrott (R) is leading incumbent Trone (D) by about a percentage point. This was a relatively strong D seat, so R’s picking this up here is major for taking control of the House. Look for this to narrow, but it’s way too early to tell how this might shake out. Trone probably pulls this one out but I wouldn’t put money on it.
Illinois: Democrats have run the table here, with Ill-17 called for them as I write this. These helped to offset R gains in NY and FL.
Montana: MT-1 is still in play, with Zinke (R) ahead of Tranel (D) by 4 points with 91% reporting. I think this is more of decision desks playing it safe, honestly. R’s ain’t losing this Montana seat.
New Mexico: Some decision desks are already calling that Vasquez (D) has beaten Herrell (R) by about a percentage point with 95% of the vote in. Good enough for me. That’s a D flip on a seat Herrell carried in 2020.
Colorado: While everyone is watching CO-3, CO-8 is getting spicy with Caraveo (D) up by .1% on Kirkmeyer (R) with 91% of the vote in. Kirkmeyer conceded to Caraveo tonight, so in my view D’s take this new seat created after the census. CO-3 is TOIGHT with Boebert down by a mere 64 total votes. There are some additional votes out there in D-friendly areas, but there are conflicting reports on if it’s mail in or in person votes: https://twitter.com/kyleclark/status/1590540568077430786?s=46&t=eMqRJVgcQN5xQoGmX0Ht3A My heart says D’s take this, so I’m going with my cock pick here. Dems are gonna win CO-3 in a squeaker and send Boebert packing.
Arizona: This will likely take awhile, but there are some critical House races here. AZ-4 is looking good for Dems, and they have a slight lead in AZ-1. AZ-2 and AZ-6 are both favoring R’s, but there is a lot of vote left to count. Really depends on how those votes come in tomorrow night and beyond. Call these all pure tossup or lean R, whatever terminology you vibe with. R’s really would like to take at least two of these to have some cushion before California comes in.
Nevada: There are 3 outstanding races, and Dems are likely to win all three with the vote coming into Nevada. D’s drew an aggressive Gerrymander putting all 3 of these at risk so they could cut out a safe R seat, and it looks like it’s going to ultimately pay off. Since the remaining vote in NV is going to be Dems closing the gap, the fact that all 3 D’s are up now means they are likely to stay up. I’m calling the gamble in NV pays off (I am so sorry for that low hanging shite pun).
Washington: Dems are looking good in WA-8, but interestingly are ahead in WA-3 and look like they could take this one. This was expected to be a decent R hold, and shows Dems getting another good flip they weren’t expected to win. No one has called this race and there’s no concessions yet, but with 70% of the vote in, this looks promising for Dems.
Oregon: Super interesting stuff here. Dems are ahead in OR-4 as expected, but they have a 1.6% lead in OR-6. With 61% in, this could go either way so keep an eye on it. But that was a projected tossup before Tuesday. On the flip side, OR-5 was expected to be a good R race, and now Dems have it in striking distance. They are down by only 7k votes (2.5%), with a ton of Portland suburbs left to come in. Again, super interesting and could be critical to Dems holding the House. If Dems win OR-5, them winning the House outright is in play.
Alaska: Dems are projected to take the Alaska at-large seat. Not too surprising, but notable since R’s would have hoped to get a flip here if they were going to have a healthy majority in the House. Sarah Palin really fucked them over.
California: The motherload, and will likely decide control ultimately. I am going to break this down more since there is as much going on here as the rest of the country right now.
Easy Dem Wins: Don’t even think about these races. Multiple of them have two democrats running against each other. Ah, California. CA-6, 15, 16, 21, 29, 34, 35, 37, 38 and 46. Expect Dems to win all of these.
Easy R Wins: CA-23 is the only one here. It’s in the San Bernardino valley next to Nevada, and Dems are down by 20 right now. Just call the damn thing already.
Must-win for R’s: These are the seats that if R’s lose more than 1 would mean they are at risk of not taking the House at all. Arguably the most important races left in the country for House implications.
CA-3 is a super long district that snakes from north of Sacramento all the way down along Nevada. It has some Sacramento suburbs though, and has potential for D’s to take. It’s 44% reporting right now, with a lot of mail votes left, but a lot of D area has already gone. Kevin Kiley (R) is up 53.1 to 46.9. Way too early to know how this shakes out but R’s seem to be doing what they need to to hold on.
CA-40 is the OC district held by Young Kim (R). She is a strong incumbent, and is up by 18 points with 58% of the vote in. Hard to see how the R’s don’t ultimately win this one.
CA-41 is a largely rural district that includes parts of East LA all the pay to Palm Springs. Calvert, the 30-year R incumbent, is more vulnerable here since the district was redrawn to grab LGBT neighborhoods in Palm Springs to offset the rurals. With 37% of the vote in, Rollins (D) is leading Calvert (R-Incumbant) by 9 points. A long way to go here but this is definitely a potential D pickup in a seat Cali Dems drew to knock off Calvert.
CA-45 is a rural-ish district in Orange County which grabs parts of East LA. With 56% reporting, Michelle Steel (R-Incumbant) is up by 10 points over Jay Chen. About 14k votes. We have less than half of the vote out of LA, so this one aint over yet. But my gut tells me Steel is gonna hold on in the end.
Tossups D’s are Defending: These are races which R’s had pegged as potential pickups before Tuesday. If R’s win these, they will likely be more for padding their House margin, rather than contributing to taking the House.
CA-47 is Katie Porter’s district in Orange County, which was recently redrawn to shore her up a bit. She is currently ahead by .05% with 58% of the vote in, but has room to grow if we are waiting on mail ins. No clue how this shakes out.
CA-49 is Mike Levin’s district in Orange County which grabs parts of San Diego county. He is up 51.1% to 48.9% with 51% of the votes in, so similar situation to CA-47, albeit with more cushion. Again, all depends on the mail ins at this point/what is left to count.
Tossups R’s are Defending/Open Seats: These are the races that R’s are at risk of losing, but would hope to hold to give them more cushion in an eventual House majority.
CA-13 is a perennial battleground district which goes from the San Francisco suburbs all the way down to the meth fields of Fresno. John Duarte (R) is up by .3% with 50% of the vote in. Super close, and depends on what is left to count. If it’s all mail ins? D’s have this. It also doesn’t help Duarte that only 42% of the SF suburbs are in. This is looking very good for Dems.
CA-22 is democrats white whale south of Fresno into Bakersfield. Dave Valadao (R) represents this district, and is one of the few House R’s who voted to impeach Trump for Jan. 6 to also survive a primary challenge. He is up by 8% with 39% of the vote in, but a whopping 71% of the vote is still to come from the Dem leaning suburbs in this district. Dems may finally get their guy.
Another white whale in CA-27, where Mike Garcia (R) represents the good people of Santa Clarita, Palmdale, and some of the middle class LA suburbs in San Fernando. He has opened up a monstrous 15 point lead with 44% of the vote in. It will depend on what vote is left, but he seems to be hitting what he needs to win.
Republican Reaches: These are the races R’s would hope to snag on a good night, but now they will be lucky to sniff. If they get 1 or 2 of these, they should have the House well in hand.
CA-9 includes the town of Stockton, and basically the East bay towns nestled between San Francisco and Sacramento. Josh Harder (D-Incumbent) is up by 13 with 43% of the vote in, and plenty more to come from urban/suburban areas. Dems are in a strong position to keep this one.
CA-26 includes almost all of Ventura County north of LA, as well as some parts of Northwest Los Angeles. Incumbent Julia Brownley is up by 8 points with 51% of the vote in, but only 44% in from LA. It seems likely she will ultimately prevail since the outstanding vote should be mostly mail-in.
My Take: R’s take the House with their 7 seats being CA-23, CA-3, CA-40, CA-45, AZ-2, AZ-6, MT-1. Beyond that who knows. Imagine if the House is 218-217…
Governor’s Races:
Overall: Democrats had a strong showing overall on Tuesday, and the remaining races to call include the closely watched Arizona and Nevada races, as well as the surprisingly close Oregon race.
Nevada + Arizona: See above in the Senate section for the vote situation on these races. These both have the common feature that the Democratic Senate candidates are running ahead of their counterparts in the Governor’s races. Kari Lake is only down by about .7% on Katie Hobbs with 70% of the vote in (13k total vote margin), and D Incumbent Steve Sisolak is down by 4 on Joe Lombardo (former Clark County Sheriff). For Hobbs, the character of the “late early vote” is going to matter a lot. If it is similar to 2020, she seems toast. If Dems are carrying it, then she will win. We will find out tomorrow I guess. Lombardo seems more vulnerable with all the outstanding Clark county and Washoe county mail ins, just a matter of how much Sisolak makes up the gap. He seems to be getting some crossover votes in Clark, likely because of his roots there. Both these Gubernatorial races could go either way, and could take a long time to count.
Oregon: At 73% reporting, D-Incumbent Tina Kotek is ahead by just shy of 3% on her challenger Christine Drazan. Most of the remaining vote is from Portland and surrounding suburbs, and the local news outlet has already called the race for Kotek: https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2022/11/tina-kotek-wins-oregon-governors-race-fending-off-strongest-republican-bid-in-a-decade.html
Since no major outlets have called the race, it is still going for this update’s purposes, but expect Kotek to ultimately win.
My Take: Kotek wins in Oregon, Lombardo hangs on, and Kari Lake ushers in 10,000 years of darkness in Arizona. It would also make her the only R election denier D’s funded to win a race (idiots).