Below is an update now that we are almost a week into the election. The Left Coast needs to seriously get their shit together.
Senate Races:
Overall: Democrats have taken 50 seats, and thereby the senate majority. The Georgia runoff will only decide the margin of Democrats’ control over the chamber. Accordingly, this section is now retired. Now we just pray that Herschell walker doesn’t spread his rampant pro-abortion ideology to the Senate.
House Races:
Overall: My current personal count (i.e., incorporating decisions desks which have called certain races but not others) is 205 D / 213 R (NY Times/AP have not called Colo-8 for D or NY-22 for R, but at least one other decision desk/paper has for both of those, and I see no reason to doubt that logic. The R also already conceded in Colo-8 so what are we even doing here. No taksey-backsies. Below is what the current situation is, along with an update on the races I included last time. Let’s also do a count of how I think this will end up as I go along.
Maine: ME-2 has Golden (D) ahead by three points still. The ranked choice voting will be run, and the 7% independent vote from Tiffany Bond will be redistributed between Golden and Poliquin (48.2 % and 44.9%, respectively). Golden has already declared victory, and it seems like is going to win. 206 D/213 R.
New York: R’s made their biggest gains in NY, where an aggressive D gerrymander was shot down by the New York Court of Appeals and a special master instituted a relatively R-friendly map (but still within the bounds of a fair map TBH). R’s have picked up 4-5 races here. The last hold outs were NY-22 and NY-18. All decision desks have called NY-18 for D and NY-22 has at least some which have called for R. The only thing left to count are some military ballots and absentee ballots. I see no way the D candidate can win here. To the point where i already incorporated it into my assessment.
Maryland: Dems had a major hold here in MD-6. Trone (D) keeps his redrawn seat.
Montana: I said previously there was no way R’s lost MT-1. That was proven to be correct as Ryan Zinke returns to the House.
New Mexico: Vasquez (D) knocked off Herrell in this “likely republican” seat. Huge pickup for dems.
Colorado: Some desks have already called CO-8 for Caraveo (D), and her opponent has already conceded. This one should be in the D column for most desks if it isn’t already. CO-3 is TIGHT still. Boebert is up by just over 1000 votes, but there are overseas and absentee ballots which are still to be counted. If Frisch takes them by ~65%, he will win. Not out of the realm of possibility. But i think Boebert holds on (my cock pick seems to be wrong). 206D/213R.
Arizona: Dems have taken AZ-4 and R’s have taken AZ-2. Dems have lost their lead in AZ-1 but they may still have a chance, depending on the remaining ballots to drop. Decision Desk HQ has called this for Schweikert (R), but i think that’s a bit premature. No one really knows how this will end up, but it should favor R’s. AZ-6 also favors R’s rn but Tuscon is not Maricopa, and the late early vote there has been more D friendly. I think this one has a shot to flip, and is closer in the vote count. Call it a split. 207D/214R.
Washington: Dems took WA-8 and WA-3. Both were huge pickups which kept their hopes of keeping the House alive. This is why you don’t primary moderate R’s in favor of election deniers.
Oregon: Dem’s have taken OR-4, and OR-6 looks like it is well on their way to victory. OR-5 is a gain for R’s after Dems primaried Kurt Schrader (7 term incumbent) from the left. Stupid. Likely 208D/214R after OR-6.
Alaska: Dems are projected to take the Alaska at-large seat. Not too surprising, but notable since R’s would have hoped to get a flip here if they were going to have a healthy majority in the House. Sarah Palin really fucked them over. 209D/214R
California: Lord give me strength. Let’s take this one at a time.
CA-9 includes the town of Stockton, and basically the East bay towns nestled between San Francisco and Sacramento. Josh Harder (D-Incumbent)is up by 13 with 47% of the vote in, and plenty more to come from urban/suburban areas. Seems like a solid D hold at this point. 210D/214R.
CA-6 is the Sacramento suburbs. Ami Bera (D-Incumbent) is up by 13. This will be a win for Dems. 211D/214R.
CA-21 is the greater Fresno area and outskirts. Dems are up by 9 and even a bit of narrowing shouldn’t hurt them based on what’s left in the rurals and urben area (slightly more rurals, but manageable for Costa (D-Incumbent). 212D/214R.
CA-49 is is Mike Levin’s (D-Incumbent) district in Orange County which grabs parts of San Diego county. He is up 52.6% to 47.4% with 79% reporting. Most of the vote left is from the D leaning areas. No clue why this hasn’t been called yet. 213D/214R.
CA-47 is Katie Porter’s district in Orange County, which was recently redrawn to shore her up a bit. She has recently shot up to a 3% lead with 72% of the vote in, and should be well on pace to hold onto this seat. 214D/214R.
CA-13 is a perennial battleground district which goes from the San Francisco suburbs all the way down to the meth fields of Fresno. John Duarte (R) is up by .05% with 61% of the vote in. His lead continues to narrow, and most of the vote to come in is mail-in from the urban areas. I expect Adam Gray to overtake him, and Dems to take this seat. But it will be close, and likely won’t be called anytime soon. 215D/214R.
CA-41 is a largely rural district that includes parts of East LA all the pay to Palm Springs. Calvert, the 30-year R incumbent, is more vulnerable here since the district was redrawn to grab LGBT neighborhoods in Palm Springs to offset the rurals. Since the last update, Calvert has taken the lead with 51.3% to 48.7%. We have 74% of the vote in, and it is unclear how the rest of this will go. Let’s call it for D’s since they’ve had the upper hand so far, and I think they could get this reach. 215D/214R + 1 Pure Tossup.
CA-22 is democrats white whale south of Fresno into Bakersfield. Dave Valadao (R) represents this district, and is one of the few House R’s who voted to impeach Trump for Jan. 6 to also survive a primary challenge. He remains up, albeit by only 5% now with 53% of the vote in. 95% of King’s county (rural) is in, and 58% Tulare (Rural) and 44% of Kern (suburban) as well. This will come down to the wire, and Dems seem confident the remaining votes will favor them. 215D/214R + 2 Pure Tossup.
CA-3 is a super long district that snakes from north of Sacramento all the way down along Nevada. It has some Sacramento suburbs though, and has potential for D’s to take. At 53% reporting, R’s are holding their margins at 53% to 47%. Without more information is see no reason why R’s won’t hold this. 215D/215R + 2 Pure Tossup.
CA-45 is a rural-ish district in Orange County which grabs parts of East LA. With 70% reporting, Michelle Steel (R-Incumbant) is up by 7 points over Jay Chen. We are about even with rural reporting and urban LA reporting, and so I think with that it is extremely likely Steel holds on. 215D/216R + 2 Pure Tossup.
CA-27 is where Mike Garcia (R) represents the good people of Santa Clarita, Palmdale, and some of the middle class LA suburbs in San Fernando. His 15 point lead at 44% reporting has been cut to 11% at 67% reporting, and so it is unclear if Christy Smith can make up enough ground. Call it a win for the R’s. 215D/217R + 2 Pure Tossup.
My Take: Will depend on how California breaks at the end (maybe it ends up like New York where it’s a bloodbath because there are no coat tails for D’s to ride). I think we are looking at 217R seats solidly, with 2 that could go either way. Split them and we are well on our way to a 217D/218R House. I’m so hype for the first special election.
Governor’s Races:
Arizona: The last governor race standing. Currently, we are at Katie Hobbs with a 1 point lead over Kari Lake. Even with the late early votes being counted out of Maricopa, Hobbs is making up ground from Tuscon and Lake is simply not hitting the numbers to stay afloat. I am going to reverse my previous stance and say Katie Hobbs holds on in this race.